Forecasting recovery rates on non-performing loans with machine learning

نویسندگان

چکیده

Abstract We compare the performance of a wide set regression techniques and machine-learning algorithms for predicting recovery rates on non-performing loans, using private database from European debt collection agency. find that rule-based such as Cubist, boosted trees, random forests perform significantly better than other approaches. In addition to loan contract specificities, predictors refer bank process — prior portfolio’s sale collector are also shown enhance forecasting performance. These variables, derived time series contacts defaulted clients client reimbursements bank, help all identify debtors with different repayment ability and/or commitment, in general those potential.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: International Journal of Forecasting

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['1872-8200', '0169-2070']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.06.009